Is the Cup hosted outside of Europe? Bet on Brazil.
That correctly picks the winner nearly half the time-- 8 out of the last 17 Cups!
A European side has never won the Cup outside of Europe. Only one non-European team has won the Cup in Europe (and they had Pele!)
Remember how 2002 was so exciting and full of surprise teams? Many pundits seem relieved that the traditional powers are back on top; the strong performances from Korea and the USA were clearly flukes.
.. or maybe the European teams were not quite as strong on a neutral field.
In the last 4 Cups in Europe (France 98, Italy 90, Spain 82, Germany 74) European sides have posted a 61-20-30 record, with 208 goals for and 90 goals against (1.87 - 0.81 per game).
In the last 4 Cups outside of Europe (Korea/Japan 02, USA 94, Mexico 86, Argentina 78) European sides have posted a 49-44-29 record, with 160 goals for and 147 goals against (1.31-1.20 per game).